Ahead of the August 2, 2026 meeting, member countries are studying a final increase of 188,000 barrels per day for September. This adjustment would complete the gradual reintroduction of 1.65 million barrels per day withdrawn from the market in 2023, of which 1.15 million barrels per day have been restored since April by the core group comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

The decision to maintain unchanged quotas highlights the growing gap between theoretical ceilings and actual deliveries. The alliance's effective extraction stands at 36.28 million barrels per day in June 2026, showing a deficit of nearly 7 million barrels per day compared to pre-conflict levels between Washington and Tehran. Logistical bottlenecks in Iraq, infrastructure deterioration in the Black Sea affecting Kazakhstan, and strikes targeting Russian refineries physically restrict exportable volumes. The International Energy Agency indeed estimates the global supply deficit at 9.4 million barrels per day compared to pre-war capacities.

These supply constraints maintain high volatility on financial markets. After a peak near $100 per barrel on July 24, 2026, under the threat of maritime incidents in the Red Sea, the Brent price fell back to around $90 on July 28, 2026, following a temporary military truce. The setting of rigid extraction ceilings thus aims to reassure financial markets about the predictability of supply while taking into account the industrial limitations of producing countries.


Nlend Flore

Tags: pétrole opep production marché énergétique économie politique énergétique industrie pétrolière prix du pétrole marchés financiers