Although average inflation held steady at 1.4% at the end of June 2026, matching the March 2026 level and marking a sharp decline from the 3.5% observed in June 2025, the year-on-year measure shows a marked acceleration, rising from 1.7% to 2.3% over twelve months. According to the central bank's analyses, this surge reflects the gradual transmission of external geopolitical shocks combined with regional logistical imbalances. Price dynamics within the monetary union remain heavily dependent on the performance of national economies. Cameroon, which accounts for 52.3% of the weight of the regional consumer price index, single-handedly generated 71.2 percentage points of the inflation recorded in the zone. The contributions of other member states stand at 22.5 points for Congo, 13.0 points for Equatorial Guinea, 4.4 points for the Central African Republic, and 2.5 points for Gabon.

Bucking this trend, Chad exerts a continuous moderating effect on the general price level with a negative contribution of -13.6 points. This imported deflation in the land of Toumaï is essentially explained by the depreciation of the Libyan dinar, which has lowered the cost of cross-border goods shipped from the Maghreb.

BEAC projections forecast a surge in the index to 3.5% by the end of September 2026, breaching the 3% tolerance threshold. This slippage stems from rising maritime transport costs in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing oil tankers into costly detours, as well as the increasing cost of inputs, refined products, and equipment imported from Nigeria due to the appreciation of the naira. In the medium term, the issuing institution fears a prolonged tightening of monetary policies pursued by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Such a stance would raise the cost of external borrowing for the sub-region's public treasuries, reducing their budgetary room for maneuver to subsidize essential goods or finance infrastructure supporting production.


Asaba

Tags: inflation cemac beac banque centrale cameroun tchad politique monetaire taux directeur prix a la consommation zone franc economie afrique centrale