The African continent's energy trajectory is poised for significant acceleration. According to a prospective study published by consulting firm Mordor Intelligence, the global renewable energy market should grow from an installed capacity of 86.95 gigawatts in 2026 to an estimated volume of 179.66 gigawatts by 2031. This dynamic, which assumes an average annual growth rate of 15.62%, finds its primary catalyst in the drastic plunge in solar module prices (down to $0.12 per watt) and the multiplication of rural electrification programs supported by international financial institutions, such as the World Bank's "Mission 300" initiative, which mobilizes $35 billion to connect 300 million people.


While hydropower accounted for 62.25% of the market in 2025, solar photovoltaic has now emerged as the most dynamic segment, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.84% over the period. The collapse in prices is reflected in recent tenders, such as South Africa's 7th bidding round, which awarded 2.6 gigawatts at an average tariff of $0.025 per kilowatt-hour, down 60% compared to the previous decade. Meanwhile, the development of green hydrogen corridors — exemplified by Morocco's $32.5 billion investment plan targeting 10 gigawatts of capacity and 3 million tonnes of annual exports, or Namibia's Hyphen project covering 7 gigawatts — testifies to African states' determination to position themselves in international markets.


However, realizing this immense potential remains contingent on complex technical and macroeconomic challenges. Independent operators continue to face grid integration constraints on often-fragile electrical networks, materialized by curtailment episodes — such as the 4,363 gigawatt-hours reduced in South Africa in 2024, restrictions suffered by Kenya's Lake Turkana during 18% of hours in 2025, or the disconnection of Egypt's Benban solar park for 200 hours. Added to this are barriers related to currency convertibility, such as the 40% drop in Zambia's kwacha or Ethiopia's cap on transfers at 50% of quarterly profits. To overcome these obstacles, the market is organizing around a balance where Gulf developers dominate large tenders below $0.03 per kilowatt-hour, European majors deploy hybrid solutions, and Chinese industrials supply 65% of the continent's photovoltaic equipment.


Nlend Flore

Tags: énergies renouvelables afrique croissance 16% solaire photovoltaïque électrification rurale mission 300 hydrogène vert prix solaire investissements défis énergétiques