The slowdown in macroeconomic overheating is due to the decline in global prices of food and energy commodities. The easing is also supported by the strong performance of agricultural harvests in Cameroon and Chad, as well as the continuation of public subsidies on fuel prices at the pump in various member states.

The sectoral analysis by country highlights significant geographical disparities in the propagation of residual tensions. Cameroon accounts for the majority of price increases, contributing +110.8 points to the zone's inflation index, driven by the strength of private demand supported by high cocoa earnings. Other positive contributions are more modest, with Equatorial Guinea contributing 17.0 points, the Central African Republic 9.7 points, Congo 5.3 points, and Gabon 4.3 points. In contrast, Chad's economy records a decline in domestic prices, with a negative impact of -47.1 points.

The slowdown in price indices provides regional monetary authorities with unprecedented room for maneuver. With the downward trajectory of systemic risks, the Monetary Policy Committee eased its credit conditions on June 29, lowering the main policy rate to 4.50% and reducing the level of mandatory reserves imposed on commercial banks. The revised macroeconomic projections forecast average global inflation at 2.4% for the current year, with medium-term forecasts pointing to a rate of 3.0% in 2027 before a gradual decline to 2.7% by 2028.


BCN

Tags: inflation cemacs economie afrique zone cemac taux d'inflation macroeconomic politique monetaire banque centrale