This upturn marks a clear break with the bearish trend that prevailed during the previous fiscal year and extends, at a much more vigorous pace, the timid beginning of recovery observed in the first quarter.

An examination of the structure of this growth highlights the absolute predominance of the hydrocarbons sector in the formation of external revenues. Alone, energy products saw their prices increase by 20.4%, following an already sustained performance in the preceding quarter.


In its analysis note, the issuing institute emphasizes that this component carries decisive weight, contributing 11.3 points to the overall rise of the index. Conversely, non-energy primary commodities displayed an inverse trajectory, recording a slight decline of 0.4%, which subtracts 0.2 point from the overall dynamic, confirming the persistent decoupling between the vitality of the oil and gas segment and the more erratic pace of other export sectors.

This surge in energy commodity prices finds its exogenous origin in the persistence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the threats weighing on major international maritime trade corridors, such as the Strait of Hormuz, combined with recurrent disruptions affecting the liquefied natural gas logistics chain.


While these international tensions provide a breath of oxygen to the trade balances of Cemac member states exporting hydrocarbons by strengthening their external surpluses, they also remind us of the structural vulnerability of the entire Cemac zone to global market volatility—a factor that monetary authorities continue to monitor with the utmost vigilance to anticipate repercussions on price stability and the soundness of foreign exchange reserves.


Nlend Flore

Tags: pétrole gaz hydrocarbures matières premières exportations CEMAC cours des matières premières tensions géopolitiques volatilité des marchés réserves de change