The World Health Organization had already recorded 579,000 deaths due to the disease in Africa during 2024, 75% of whom were children under five. The peak of mosquito infection concentrates around an optimal thermal threshold of 25 degrees Celsius, declining below 16 degrees Celsius or above 34 degrees Celsius. In territories situated above 1,000 meters in altitude, prevalence has already increased by 0.81 percentage points, reaching increases between 1 and 2 percentage points in the Rift and on the Ethiopian plateau. 

By 2050, vector proliferation should increase by 5% in the highland areas of Kenya, Ethiopia, Angola, Zambia and South Africa, rising to as much as 20% on the southern coasts by 2100. Conversely, the extreme temperatures expected in Nigeria, Burkina Faso or Mali will reduce the circulation of infection by 4.5% by the end of the century, creating unviable conditions for the insect in the Sahel. Respecting the 2-degree Celsius warming limit would avoid 5 additional infection cases per 1,000 children in southern regions.

The rise in temperatures in highland areas catches populations lacking natural immunity to the parasite off guard. The expansion of the mosquito’s operational perimeter imposes an urgent reallocation of health budgets toward the mountainous districts of East Africa.

The inadequacy of medical infrastructure in cooler areas exacerbates the risk of severe epidemic crises. Anticipating vector movements will enable public authorities to adapt vaccination campaigns and distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets.


Nlend Flore

Tags: paludisme changement climatique afrique subsaharienne moustique anophèle altitude température santé publique vecteur épidémie prévention