The consolidated deficit of member states contracted to 4.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three months of the year, compared to 4.3% recorded in the same period last year. The recovery trajectory is taking place in a context of easing refinancing conditions, marked by a 68 basis point decline in the one-week interest rate on the interbank market, now set at 4.26%.

Regional economic activity is showing overall resilience despite geopolitical shocks from the Middle East, which have led to an upward realignment of fuel prices at the pump in several Union capitals between March and May 2026. Real GDP growth remains robust at 6.1% in the first quarter, marking a slight deceleration after the 6.5% rate recorded in the previous quarter. Pressure on the household basket remained under control thanks to excellent yields from the last agricultural campaign, allowing the harmonized consumer price index to enter negative territory at -0.2%, following a level of -0.8% three months earlier.

The improvement in the external balance of payments is also supporting the position of the issuing institution. The improvement in current accounts is due to the combined increase in gold, hydrocarbon exports, and disbursements of external financing obtained by public treasuries. However, the budget execution prospects for the second half include factors of uncertainty related to the erosion of trade terms and state subsidies required to cushion energy shocks. The committee's deliberations include a fine-tuned assessment of the level of export revenue repatriation as of the end of March 2026, as well as an examination of the banking system's overall liquidity to adjust future key interest rates.


Bernardo

Tags: economie uemoa deficit budget inflation croissance taux d'interet marche financier commerce exterieur