Rice: Africa Resists Global Production Decline

Under the combined effect of climate anomalies attributed to the El Niño phenomenon and a decline in farmers' profit margins, global volumes are expected to decrease by 1.63%, from 561.6 million tons to 552.4 million tons. In this context of generalized slowdown affecting Asia and the American continent, the African agricultural sector is the only one to reverse the trend.

Forecasts of an additional 500,000 tons on African soil reflect the initial impacts of food security strategies deployed at the regional level. The continent's production is expected to increase by 1.6% to a total volume of 29.3 million tons. This performance is based on the introduction of high-yielding cereal varieties that are less water-intensive, as well as economic incentive policies.

In Madagascar and Tanzania, attractive purchase prices have encouraged the expansion of cultivated areas. In Egypt, the widespread use of improved seeds allows for high yields to be maintained. While West Africa is generally following this positive trend, the situation remains mixed. Marketing-related constraints are weighing on profitability in Nigeria and Ghana, while a rainfall deficit threatens to limit harvests in Benin, Togo, and Côte d'Ivoire.

Despite the progressive restructuring of local sectors, the productivity gains recorded have not yet been able to reverse import flows. The rate of increase in national production remains lower than the pace of domestic demand, driven by sustained demographic growth and changes in urban food habits.

Africa therefore remains heavily dependent on international trade to meet its current consumption needs. The FAO's projections for the 2026/2027 cycle do not yet quantify future customs transactions, but past trade trends recall the fragility of this balance: between 2022 and 2024, African countries had to purchase an average of 18.6 million tons of rice on the global market to fill their internal deficit.

BCN