CAR: Debt-to-GDP Ratio Climbs to 62.21% in Q3 2026
Although the country remains below the 70% community ceiling set by CEMAC, the indicator marks a 3.5-percentage-point increase from the 58.67% recorded a year earlier, revealing a pace of debt accumulation that outstrips real growth dynamics (3% in 2025).
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Over the period under review, the global debt stock (including outstanding amounts and arrears) rose by 8.4%, reaching CFAF 1,174.11 billion compared with CFAF 1,082.86 billion in the third quarter of 2025. This increase stems mainly from a shift in the debt composition: external outstanding debt expanded from CFAF 356.7 billion to CFAF 666.4 billion, while domestic debt contracted from CFAF 726.1 billion to CFAF 507.7 billion. External commitments now account for 56.76% of the total.
The architecture of the external portfolio reveals a marked concentration of multilateral and bilateral lending. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) ranks as the leading institutional creditor with 29.82% of external outstanding debt, followed by the World Bank (13.15%). On the bilateral side, Taiwan holds 17.89% of total external debt (and 37.76% of the bilateral segment), ahead of Saudi Arabia (8.61%) and India (6.33%). Meanwhile, issues of government securities by local subscription saw strong growth, climbing from CFAF 9.59 billion to CFAF 49.59 billion in one year, now constituting 83% of the domestic stock. Effective debt service amounted to CFAF 21.38 billion in Q3 2026, posting an execution rate of 93.24% against bilateral forecasts.
Analysis of maturity and financial terms highlights vulnerability disparities between the two debt compartments. The Ministry of Finance underscores the sustainability of external loans, characterized by a strong concessional component with an average interest rate of 0.9% and an average maturity of 7.9 years. Conversely, the domestic portfolio carries higher costs (average rate of 4.1% and average duration of 5.4 years) associated with greater refinancing risk, with 5.5% of domestic debt maturing in under one year, compared with 8.27% for external debt. The continued reduction in total arrears (brought down from CFAF 179.67 billion to CFAF 171.70 billion) nevertheless attests to the Central African Treasury's commitment to clearing its due liabilities.
Asaba
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