Outlook: The departure of the Hilli Episeyo floating liquefied natural gas plant is expected to reduce economic growth to 3.2% in 2026
The scheduled shutdown of the maritime operations of the floating liquefied natural gas plant in July 2026 has clouded the prospects for national activity expansion. Projections developed by the National Economic and Financial Committee anticipate a slowdown in the pace of wealth growth in Cameroon, reduced to 3.2% for the current year and 3.1% in 2027, compared to 3.5% recorded at the end of 2025.
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The decline stems directly from the contraction of the petroleum gross domestic product, whose financial value is expected to decline by 16.1% in 2026 and then experience a further decline of 18% during the following year. The negative impact of the extractive branch will subtract 0.4 percentage points from overall growth for each of the two periods, amplified by the overall decline in merchandise exports, which have already fallen by 23.6% in the first quarter of 2026 to 606.9 billion CFA francs.
The withdrawal of the floating plant off the coast of Kribi comes as revenues from liquefied natural gas continue to decline since the peak of 622 billion CFA francs reached in 2022. Export revenues fell to 421 billion CFA francs in 2023, then to 381 billion CFA francs in 2024, before sliding to 350.2 billion CFA francs in 2025, a decline of 8.1% over twelve months. Despite the gradual erosion of the amounts received, the resource still accounted for 11.4% of the country's total foreign exchange earnings at the end of the last fiscal year. The end of the partnership between the National Hydrocarbons Company and the shipowner Golar exacerbates the vulnerability of the trade balance, projecting a current account deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027, while widening the budget deficit to 2.1% of GDP.
The search for operational growth relays is hindered by the timing constraints inherent to the gas industry. Although the state-owned oil company is counting on the development of the cross-border Yoyo-Yolanda field, containing approximately 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas for an estimated investment of $4 billion, the infrastructure will not provide any commercializable volumes in the short term. Similarly, negotiations regarding the allocation of new exploration blocks in the Douala-Kribi-Campo and Rio del Rey basins will require several fiscal years of technical development before compensating for the loss of the floating unit. The transition to new production capacities leaves a critical interval during which the state will have to contain the progression of fuel subsidy expenditures without altering households' purchasing power.
Asaba
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