The target rate marks a two-point jump from the 5.3% forecast for 2026 and the 5.1% result recorded in 2025. The dynamics are based on the implementation of the National Development Plan, which has a budget of 18,000 billion FCFA, with financing commitments from international partners already covering more than half of the total amount.

Government projections exceed the estimates of N'Djamena's financial partners. The African Development Bank anticipates a rate of 3.5% in 2027 and pushes back the prospect of 7% to the 2031 horizon. The World Bank retains a forecast of 5.3% in 2027 after 5.2% in 2026, while the International Monetary Fund envisages a slowdown to 4.9% in 2027 compared to 5.2% in 2026. Despite these differences in framing, Central Africa ranks the Chadian economy at the top of the Cemac zone for the pace of activity growth.

Reaching the objectives is hindered by heavy structural constraints. The banking sector suffers from a lack of own funds, with around 40% of establishments unable to meet the legal threshold of 10 billion FCFA in minimum capital as of April 2024, keeping interest rates around 17%. On the external exchange front, the trade balance surplus fell to 273.9 billion FCFA in 2025 compared to 597.7 billion FCFA in 2024, a 54.2% decline. The recovery therefore relies on the increase in agricultural yields and the industrialization of livestock farming to reverse the trajectory of external trade.


Bernardo

Tags: tchad economie croissance plan national developpement financement banque mondiale fmi cemac afrique centrale