This surge in valuation interrupts a structural downward cycle that began in 2023, during which the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a collapse of market values of around 80% due to a global surplus of volumes. The administrative closure in August 2025 of the Chinese Jianxiawo mine, operated by giant CATL, removed around 3% of the world's lithium extraction capacity from the market, driving the spot price of the mineral from $8.9 per kilogram in August 2025 to $22.65 per kilogram in early June 2026.

The conjunctural upswing immediately impacts the trade balance of the planet's major mining powers. The authorities in Santiago, Chile, the world's third-largest lithium producer according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), report semi-annual export revenues of $3.21 billion, a financial volume nearly tripled year-over-year. The dynamic is explained by the increased consumption of Chinese automakers, engaged in an aggressive price war to consolidate their market share of electric vehicles, combined with a massive expansion of stationary energy storage infrastructure. However, the sustainability of profit margins remains uncertain due to the delivery, on June 29, 2026, of a state security agreement authorizing CATL to relaunch the exploitation of its Jianxiawo site until February 27, 2028, a prospect coupled with the imminent reactivation of suspended drilling wells in Australia.

The erratic fluctuations in the metal exchange's tariff grids condition the economic viability of deposits under development on the African continent. Zimbabwe and Mali are increasing their shipment rates to Asian refining plants, while the Democratic Republic of Congo, via the Manono project, and Ghana, with the Ewoyaa site, are finalizing the development of their industrial processing infrastructure. The lack of long-term visibility on the stability of lithium prices complicates the modeling of investment plans for multinational mining companies and undermines the predictability of direct tax revenues for host countries. The durable stabilization of the market will depend on the real balance between the volume of new African mining capacities and the effective pace of resuming operations by traditional extractive companies.


Nlend Flore

Tags: marché du lithium métaux industrie minière économie lithium énergie véhicules électriques commerce international mines