The downward trajectory breaks with the global upward dynamic observed a year ago, a period during which the precious metal saw an appreciation of over 60% while setting 53 consecutive records on the price boards. The weakening of institutional demand and complex geopolitical arbitrages are redefining the hedging strategies of top investors, reversing the upward trend initiated at the beginning of the current year.

The decline in prices accelerated following a brief peak of $5,500 an ounce, a high point that preceded a 7% drop in the market value of the raw material. The military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz paradoxically penalized the non-dividend-paying asset. The rise in the price of crude oil has awakened expectations of a lasting inflationary surge, prompting operators to bet on a tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The high yields of US sovereign bonds are now capturing capital flows to the detriment of gold investments, accentuating the technical decline of the ounce, which had already fallen to $4,640 and then to $4,300 as waves of profit-taking unfolded.

The slowdown in buying flows orchestrated by monetary authorities is weakening the foundations of global demand. The central banks of Russia and Turkey have carried out substantial sales of their physical reserves, changing the balance of power between available supply and demand for security. Medium-term projections by global investment banks paint divergent scenarios: forecasts integrate a short-term evolution corridor oscillating between $3,850 and $4,000, while the most optimistic models envision a technical rebound to $6,000 under the condition of a calming of global energy shocks. African producing nations are thus forced to reevaluate the tax yield of their mining deposits in the face of the decline in royalties proportional to global prices.


Bernardo

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