After several consecutive quarters of compression, the overall indicator records a 1.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous three months. This movement breaks with the 0.9% decline observed in the third quarter, signaling a resurgence of tensions on factory costs that could alter the national economy's disinflation trajectory.

The sectoral analysis of the ex-factory tariff grids reveals that the push is mainly driven by the dynamism of manufacturing transformation. The transformation segment progresses by 1.2% in quarterly variation, supported by the wood sector, whose prices increase by 2.0% due to strong demand and rising operating costs. The agri-food sector follows the same dynamic with a 1.8% rebound over three months, which propels the annual trend of the branch to a high level of 9.1%. Minerals and metallurgy also emerge from their contraction phase with a 0.8% increase, while extractive industries begin to stabilize at +0.8%, despite a 19.1% annual decline in hydrocarbons.

The recovery of the heavy industry apparatus raises uncertainties about the evolution of purchasing power in 2026. Although the annual rate of change still shows a negative balance of -1.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, the mechanical impact of the agri-food price increase on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains predictable with a few months' lag. The persistence of a high production price base raises concerns about a slowdown in final demand, with households remaining vulnerable to current consumption arbitrages, ten years after the launch of the first IPPI modeling work inspired by the standards of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).


Asaba

Tags: inflation industrie manufacturière prix production économie désinflation coûts usine agroalimentaire