The benchmark Brent barrel, traded at around $70 at the end of February, broke through the technical resistance of $100 in mid-March, posting a brute appreciation of 67% since the outbreak of hostilities. Meanwhile, the megawatt hour of natural gas on the European spot market soared by 58% to settle at 55 euros. The paralysis also threatens the high-tech industries and global agriculture, as the region concentrates essential components of nitrogen fertilizers and 40% of the world's helium, an irreplaceable input for semiconductor foundries.

The oil shock has asymmetric and contrasting consequences on the balance of payments of Sub-Saharan African nations. The swelling of export revenues theoretically benefits crude-producing countries such as Angola, Gabon, Congo, Niger, Nigeria, and Mozambique. However, the budgetary gain is eroded by the structural dependence of these economies on imports of finished products like gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel. The scenario darkens for exclusively importing nations, particularly in East and Southern Africa, which are heavily reliant on the refineries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Economies like Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, and South Africa are forced to buy more than 50% of their fuel needs from the Middle East, exposing their foreign exchange reserves to accelerated erosion.

The vectors of crisis transmission to the African continent revolve around four fundamental channels. The first vector, commercial, operates through the direct increase in commodity prices and the disruption of bilateral trade circuits with GCC countries, which until now accounted for over $120 billion in trade flows. The second vector affects foreign direct investment and portfolio investments, frozen by the rise in geopolitical uncertainties. The financial channel translates into a global risk aversion, triggering speculative capital flights, a tightening of domestic credit conditions, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Finally, the labor channel signals a drying up of remittances from African migrant workers in the Gulf, faced with the fragilization of employment in host countries.


Asaba

Tags: guerre au moyen-orient prix du petrole economie africaine crise energetique marche mondial inflation commerce international investissements etrangers risque geopolitique economie mondiale