A prospective evaluation published on June 15, 2026, by the British agency FSD Africa, in partnership with the Shortlist firm and the Shell Foundation, highlights an intermediate acceleration in the short term that could materialize between 3.8 and 7.9 million jobs by 2030. The 4.1 million job opportunity gap identified in the short-term segment depends on the adoption of targeted policies focused on clean cooking, electric mobility, and circular economy standards.

The profile of the African green job market is characterized by a strong decentralization of service activities, limiting the risks of automation thanks to the logistical needs of the last mile and technical maintenance. The sectoral analysis positions clean cooking engineering as the primary vector of integration, with a maximum projection of 26.3 million jobs in 2050 (and 2.5 million in 2030), ahead of waste recycling, which shows a potential of 14.7 million units. Residential solar kits and two- or three-wheeled electric vehicles complete the forecasts with respective contributions of 14.4 million and 10.1 million jobs. The integration of the workforce takes place mainly within informal networks and very small enterprises, an ecosystem of services expected to capture 62% of global jobs in 2050, compared to 56% in 2030.

The territorial deployment of the transition reveals deep regional disparities and major structural constraints linked to available skills. East Africa and Southern Africa account for 58% of projected job opportunities, although they only account for 40% of the Sub-Saharan demographic, relegating West Africa and Central Africa to a global share of 42%. The industrial maturation process should, however, favor a decline in the informality rate of green jobs, which would drop from the 85-92% range in 2030 to a range of 55-75% in 2050. The viability of the model requires an immediate overhaul of technical education programs to address deficits in Internet of Things (IoT) management, battery storage optimization, and carbon accounting.


Asaba

Tags: économie verte afrique emploi vert transition énergétique développement durable énergie renouvelable recyclage électromobilité innovation verte