The acceleration of trade reflects the gradual implementation of rules of origin and tariff dismantling provided for by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The analytical balance, however, highlights deep geographical imbalances, marked by the continued marginalization of the Central African sub-region, which absorbs only a small portion of 5% of the global envelope, far behind Southern Africa, which centralizes 40% of continental freight.

The observed trade asymmetry testifies to the accumulated delay of the economies of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) in integrating industrial manufacturing chains. The financial institution estimates the loss due to unrealized exports at $2.4 billion for the central zone alone. The growth poles of East and West Africa capture the bulk of the remaining flows, driven by denser logistical infrastructure and expanded access to external trade financing. The chronic deficit of local transformation units for raw materials and the narrowness of cross-border energy networks limit the creation of interconnected value chains capable of withstanding exogenous shocks.

The strengthening of African foreign exchange reserves, which increased by 7% to $505.5 billion, provides a macroeconomic boost in an international environment disrupted by the OPEC+ quota adjustment. The 7% contraction of the World Bank's commodity price indices has severely eroded the export revenues of oil and raw mineral rentier countries. In the face of slowing global demand, Afreximbank recommends accelerating investments in multimodal transport and setting up financial compensation platforms in local currencies. The deployment of countercyclical financing mechanisms appears essential to substitute African-made manufactured goods for imported consumer goods.


Asaba

Tags: commerce africain zone de libre-échange intégration économique afrique centrale déséquilibres commerciaux investissements transport multimodal financement contracyclique économie africaine