The turnaround in the economic situation puts an end to a phase of erosion marked by a 4.3% contraction recorded in the previous three months. The external accounts of the member states benefit from the joint surge in energy resources and precious metals, a dynamism reinforced by the stability of the US dollar against the CFA franc, ensuring a consolidation of the foreign exchange reserves of the regional central bank.

The sectoral analysis of trade flows highlights a clear divide between the extractive sectors and the agro-export sector. The energy sector records a 23% surge, due to the mechanical rebound of the Brent crude oil reference barrel, whose average price stood at $75.7 compared to $62.1 at the end of the previous year. Metals and minerals appreciate overall by 8.4%, driven by the safe-haven status of gold, which gains 17.5%, followed by manganese at 13.4% and iron ore at 9.9%. In contrast, the agricultural sector suffers a severe correction of 21.8% caused by the inversion of the cocoa market. Cocoa prices fall by 24.6% over the period, moving away from the peaks of the two previous campaigns, while coffee concedes a 4.5% decline.

The redistribution of growth drivers temporarily modifies the internal macroeconomic balances of the sub-region. Economies with a strong oil component capture most of the value gains, while countries exporting plantation products, such as Cameroon, must cope with the decline in international prices for cocoa beans. The evolution of the monetary index of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) remains a crucial indicator for the treasury of the states in the zone, with the twenty basic products integrated into the calculation of the economic situation note representing 90% of the global value of the community's shipments to world markets.


Ndjomo Carlos

Tags: economie cemac exportations energie marches financiers afrique centrale commerce international petrole metaux precieux