The relative improvement in external accounts gives the central bank the opportunity to reduce its main interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, while the marginal lending facility is adjusted to 5.75% to stimulate bank credit.

The evolution of the consumer price index testifies to the control of inflationary pressures, despite recurring disruptions in the global market for raw materials and maritime logistics. The average inflation projection for the year stands at 2.4%, up from the 2.1% level validated a year earlier, but still respecting the community convergence criterion with a ceiling set at 3%. The external safety margin of the common currency is also consolidating, driven by the stability of oil prices and the regularity of crude oil exports. Net external assets are expected to cover 4.72 months of goods and services imports by the end of December, marking a progression from the 4.12 months recorded previously.

The positive trajectory translates into an increase in the external coverage rate of the currency, expected to reach 70.7% compared to 65.2% in the comparison period. However, the structural dependence of the six member states on oil revenues requires the maintenance of strict national budget discipline. The monetary authorities are working to balance the injection of liquidity to support the regional production apparatus and close monitoring of exchange circuits, with the permanence of global economic expansion remaining dependent on the implementation of structural reforms for industrial diversification.


Nlend Flore

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