The upward adjustment marks the fourth consecutive year of production growth, capping a five-year sequence that has added nearly 25 million extra bags since 2021. The increase in availability is driven by the arabica variety, whose volumes are rising to 105.86 million bags, fueled by Brazil's performance, which accounts for 45% of the planet's harvest, as well as by the recovery of plantations in Colombia, Ethiopia, and Honduras.

In contrast, the robusta variety records a slight increase to 83.8 million bags, as gains in Vietnam are not enough to offset yield declines in Indonesia and Brazil. The rise in supply finds a fluid outlet in global demand, estimated at a historic level of 179.7 million bags. The price decline that began in 2025 is prompting industry players in the European Union and the United States, which account for 40% of global consumption, to restructure their security reserves. Meanwhile, Asia is accelerating its purchases, with China absorbing 6.9 million bags, a 37% increase over five years. The growing appeal of coffee among young Chinese consumers has placed the country fifth among global buyers, behind the European Union, the United States, Brazil, and Japan.

Global security reserves are experiencing a gradual increase to 26.3 million bags, keeping the price trajectory dependent on South American weather conditions, where the impact of meteorological anomalies on flowering remains closely watched. Feeding an international industry valued at over $200 billion by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, coffee trade is the main source of income for 25 million farmers. The abundance of arabica harvests is thus stabilizing the supply chain while preserving the purchasing power of industrial transformers.


Asaba

Tags: café arabica production mondiale marché du café brésil colombie éthiopie industrie agroalimentaire commerce international économie agricole industrie alimentaire agriculture économie mondiale