The macroeconomic assessment of the region highlights a paradoxical situation, as the regional primary deficit continues to improve, falling from a low of 3.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 to 0.7% in 2025, with a target of perfect balance in 2026. This positive trend is driven by the efforts of 30 out of 47 countries. However, the reduction in initial financing needs is completely offset by the cost of refinancing past commitments, keeping public treasuries under extreme pressure.

The budgetary asphyxiation is mainly due to the geometric increase in net financial charges, which prioritizes the eviction of social priorities. In 80% of the region's economies (four out of five countries), the volume of interest paid to creditors now exceeds the cumulative budget allocations for the health and education sectors. The cash flows needed to service the debt absorb between 2.9% and 3.2% of the continent's GDP. As a result, the overall budget deficit remains high, standing at 3.5% in 2026, before a projected tightening to 3.1% over the period 2027-2028, severely restricting governments' room for maneuver.

The shift towards lasting financial instability is accelerating under the effect of the external debt amortization wall. The ratio of public debt service to tax revenues rises from 15.4% in 2024 to 18.2% in 2025, reflecting a deterioration in the solvency of African signatures. Principal repayments have surged from $37 billion to $59.2 billion between 2024 and 2025, driven by commercial bank maturities and eurobonds. Projections indicate a stabilization of these capital outflows at a high level, between $47 billion and $50 billion per year between 2026 and 2028, keeping 25 out of 48 countries (including 22 low-income nations) in a situation of confirmed or high-risk over-indebtedness.


Bernardo

Tags: afrique subsaharienne dette publique surendettement economie africaine finances publiques developpement economique stabilite financiere investissement croissance economique politique economique